Long-term Cycles

When I first began trading the markets, I was interested in holding a position for several days and my long term perspective was about 3 weeks. Over the years this perspective has lengthened, and I now start my analysis of a market with a review of the cycles 2 to 11 years long. The position of a market relative to the longer-term cycle will often have an effect upon the Seasonal Cycle and Intermediate Cycle.

Long-term cycles account for the major highs and lows on all commodity charts, both agricultural and financial. The BIG moves up and down usually occur around the highs and lows of these cycles. Also, the long-term cycles set the trend for the next shorter Seasonal Cycle, which will act differently if the trend is up than if the trend is down. Listed on the following page are the long-term cycles for each of the markets.